Jackman: Size matters for `Wolverine' and Oscars

LOS ANGELES – Hugh Jackman relied on his Wolverine alter ego to pack on muscle for the "X-Men" role, and he turned to the Oscars to slim back down.

The 40-year-old actor trained for a year to achieve his character's look.

"My goal was to make him look like an animal," a much leaner Jackman said recently. "I wanted people to be unnerved when they saw him."

Among the first to be unnerved? "Australia" director Baz Luhrmann.

Jackman was co-starring with Nicole Kidman in the epic love story when he started bulking up for "X-Men Origins: Wolverine."

"Baz said, `Mate, whatever you're eating, can you slow down a bit because I'm going to struggle to edit this together,'" Jackman recalled, adding that there are a few scenes in "Australia" where he's "beefier" than he ought to be.

The director had issues with Jackman's size again when the two collaborated on the opening song-and-dance number for the Academy Awards.

"Baz was like, `You've got to lose weight ... You're too bulky,'" Jackman said.

Luckily, Jackman discovered the ideal weight-loss plan: "Singing and dancing is the greatest diet in the history of the planet," he said. "Well, that and performing in front of a billion people."

Despite the pressures of the Oscar performance, the gregarious actor said he'd take on the hosting task again without hesitation.

"I'd do it again if I was asked," Jackman said. "I loved every second of it."

UK graduates face poor job prospects

LONDON: Almost two-thirds of students leaving universities this summer do not expect to find a graduate-level job in an economy hit by recession and rising unemployment.

A survey of over 16,000 final year students showed confidence in the graduate employment market has dropped to a 15-year low; many students fear an uncertain start to their working life.

The number of leavers who have already secured a definite job offer during the annual student recruitment round has dropped by a third this year compared with 2008, the survey by independent researchers High Fliers showed.

Half of student job hunters fear that even if they do find a job, the offer may be withdrawn before they start work or they will be made redundant in their first year of work.

"Final year students due to leave UK universities this summer are gloomy and frustrated about their employment prospects," said Martin Birchall, managing director of High Fliers Research.

"Having invested an average of 15,000 pounds ($21,600) in their degrees, thousands of finalists are now set to leave university without a job offer and feel they have little prospect."

The survey showed a dramatic fall in applications for graduate jobs in banking, finance and property - all sectors which have suffered badly since the credit crunch which prompted a global financial crisis and sharp economic decline.

Instead, more university-leavers have applied to work in the public sector, teaching, engineering, the charity or voluntary sectors and the armed forces.

Tom Hanks arrives for Film Society Gala Tribute to honor him with the Chaplin Award in NY

Actress Charlize Theron arrives for a Film Society Gala Tribute to honor actor Tom Hanks with the Chaplin Award in New York April 27, 2009

Actor Tom Hanks smiles as he arrives for a Film Society Gala Tribute to honor him with the Chaplin Award in New York April 27, 2009.

Jennifer Aniston tests the New York City nightlife

A gorgeous-looking Jennifer Aniston tests the New York City nightlife accompanied by a female pal. Jennifer is in town to film 'The Baster 'which also stars Jason Bateman.

Beyonce says "definitely" wants Broadway role

NEW YORK- Grammy Award winning singer and actress Beyonce Knowles has a plan to settle down in a couple of years and have some children with her husband, hip hop mogul Jay-Z, do less touring and -- debut on Broadway.
"It's my ideal job," Knowles told Reuters, while promoting her latest film role in "Obsessed," in which she plays a wife who takes on her husband's stalker.
"I'll be able to go to the theater every day and drop my kids off and maybe make some food -- maybe I'll know how to cook by then -- and then go do what I love and have some normalcy and have a regular schedule."
"I definitely want to do Broadway."
Related readings: Beyonce talks tour, movie, Etta James and Twitter Beyonce announces ‘I Am…’ tour dates Angelina Jolie voted most beautiful woman Beyonce knowles rocks Vancouver Knowles, 27, said she loved playing Sharon Charles in "Obsessed," which opens in U.S. theaters on Friday, her first non-singing film role after performances in screen musicals including "Cadillac Records" and "Dreamgirls."
"I love this role because in most of these movies the man comes in and saves the day. And my character Sharon is the hero. She's strong and doesn't choose to be the victim, call her husband, call the police, hide in the attic -- she fights," said Knowles.
The singer's "I Am..." world tour, which begins this week in Croatia, is dramatic but, "I wouldn't say Broadway," said Knowles , who has sold more than 50 million albums worldwide.
"It's really theatrical and I do, of course, all of the singles."

NRF: Consumers cautious on Mother's Day spending

Washington--Americans will spend an average of $123.89 on Mother's Day gifts this year, down slightly from last year's $138.63, with the majority purchasing flowers, according to the latest research from the National Retail Federation(NRF).According to the NRF's 2009 Mother's Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by Big Research, total Mother's Day spending is expected to reach $14.10 billion, which is slightly more than Easter.Of the four in five Americans (83.3 percent) who will celebrate Mother's Day this year, the majority will focus on the women with whom they are closest. Most people (62.4 percent) will purchase gifts for their mother/stepmother or wife (21.7 percent) and scale back on gifts for daughters (8.8 percent vs. 9.4 percent in 2008), friends (6.8 percent vs. 7.1 percent in 2008) and godmothers (1.6 percent vs. 2.1 percent in 2008) to save money."No one will forgo celebrating Mother's Day because of the bad economy, but they will put careful thought into what they buy and how much they spend," Big Research Executive Vice President of Strategic Initiatives Phil Rist said in a media release. "Moms will understand that kids may be spending on a budget, so inexpensive, personal gifts will go a long way."The majority of people (66.8 percent) will buy flowers for mom, spending a total of $1.9 billion on those purchases. Slightly more than half (54.8 percent) will treat mom to a special outing such as dinner or brunch, for a total of $2.7 billion. People will also spend $2.3 billion on jewelry, $1.5 billion on gift cards, $1.2 billion on clothing or clothing accessories, and $1.1 million on personal services such as a day at the spa. In addition, consumers will spend $857 million on electronics or computer-related accessories, $587 million on housewares and gardening tools, and $487 million on books or CDs."Retailers understand that people are on strict budgets, even for important holidays," NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Tracy Mullin said in the release. "Budget-friendly gift ideas will abound this Mother's Day: discounted digital cameras, books and apparel still show mom how much she is appreciated."In the search for the best bargains, one-third (30.2 percent) of Mother's Day shoppers will purchase mom's gift from discount stores, while 27.2 percent will go to department stores. Others will head to specialty stores such as florists, gift stores and electronics stores (33 percent) and specialty clothing stores (5.5 percent).As evidence that the Internet continues to play an important role in the way people shop, 18.2 percent will shop online.The NRF 2009 Mother's Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey was designed to gauge consumer behavior and shopping trends related to the Mother's Day holiday. The poll of 8,667 consumers was conducted from March 31-April 7, 2009, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percent.

SimplexDiam's liquidation business thriving

New York--SimplexDiam Inc. has made more than $15 million in closeout jewelry acquisitions in the past 30 days, the company announced recently.In what is a sign of the recessionary times, SimplexDiam made the purchases at multiple auctions, including the closeout jewelry auction of the now-bankrupt chain Christian Bernard Stores Corp.Designers represented in the acquired inventory include Cacharel, Christian Bernard, David Yurman, Feraud, Guy Laroche, Hearts On Fire, John Hardy, Lagos, Mikimoto, Ritani and Tacori. (These designers are not copyrights or trademarks of SimplexDiam and are not affiliated with the company in any way.)SimplexDiam Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Yogesh Madhvani said the company's unique liquidation style has caught the industry's attention."Retailers, wholesalers and banks have noticed that we aren't the typical jewelry liquidator," Madhvani said in a media release. "We are looking for a small margin, and we aim to move product as quickly as possible. This means the seller gets a higher recovery, and the buyer gets a better price. In this recessionary cycle, people flock to companies like ours because the difference in value crystallizes."SimplexDiam also was the backup bidder for more than $7 million of the closeout jewelry of manufacturer The Colibri Group and worked on the Whitehall Jewelers, Friedman's and LID bankruptcies.

Bridal proves a recession-proof category

Mining giant De Beers popularized the diamond as the stone of choice for engagement rings with its famous "A diamond is forever" tagline and the suggestion that "two months' salary" is the appropriate spend on an engagement ring. Consumers still choose to say "I do" with diamonds, even in the midst of a stark recession. In fact, 71 percent of National Jeweler's product panelists who were asked about bridal sales reported that over the past three years, their sales of loose diamonds, diamond engagement rings and weddings bands have either increased (41 percent) or held steady as a percentage of overall sales (30 percent), while only 29 percent reported that bridal sales fell. See more results by downloading National Jeweler's exclusive product panel on bridal jewelry, "Hitched up to bridal."Virtual rivalsWhen asked how the bridal market has changed in the past 10 years, the majority of panelists were able to sum up the shifts in two words: the Internet."The market has become more competitive," one retailer said. "With the Internet, people pre-shop all the time and have an idea of what they want for how much. The two are not always realistic if you are selling quality and service."However, one panelist said the Internet can lend jewelers more authority, in store."Customers are not as happy with the purchase from the Internet," the panelist noted. "Several customers told me that information received was not accurate." No recession for bridalFor some jewelers, bridal appears to be the one bright spot in their stores' sales recently.When asked how the economy has altered the way retailers handle the bridal business, panelists' responses were all across the board.But the strongest theme that emerged was that retailers aren't changing the way they do bridal business, with some noting their bridal business is up or unaffected by the recession."Ironically, our bridal business has gone up," one retailer wrote. "It's just the rest of the categories that are suffering because of the economic turn. People don't stop falling in love!"Another jeweler strongly agreed, "[Our bridal business] remains steady while other segments decreased last year, increasing our percentage of overall sales that are bridal. Since this segment remains strong, we will focus our marketing dollars on engagement customers."Did you know?Here are some pieces of wedding trivia to throw out to customers when trying to close a sale, courtesy of popular wedding planning Web site The Knot.Seventy percent of brides stick with tradition, wearing their wedding set on the fourth finger of their left hand. It was once believed that a vein in this finger led directly to the heart.If a prospective groom is about to walk because he can't afford a diamond ring, suggest some alternatives instead of losing the sale: According to The Knot, a sapphire in an engagement ring signifies marital happiness, while aquamarine is said to ensure a long and happy marriage.Pearl engagement rings, common among brides in ancient times, are no longer a popular pick, with The Knot claiming that the organic gems are bad luck because they resemble a tear shape.But perhaps a more practical reason for their decline as an engagement ring option relates to durability. Pearls measure just 3 on the Mohs scale for hardness, compared with diamonds, which are a 10.

Doug Kass to Support Buffett's Berkshire

Doug Kass criticize that the downgrade of Berkshire by Moody's is irony. His reasons are as follows:

As to the effect on Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet and income statement, it is negligible. Gross debt expenses will only rise slightly -- thanks to the company's still large cash hoard and given the fact that Berkshire is overcapitalized (both absolutely and vis-?vis other insurance companies). Importantly, Berkshire has structured its derivative contracts ingenuously in the fact that it did not have to provide additional collateral when the major world stock market indices dropped precipitously; it simply recorded non-cash charges.

The irony is that the Moody's downgrade has coincided with:
1. a substantial improvement in the value of Berkshire's investment portfolio; and
2. a reversal in some of the losses from Buffett's foray into shorting puts on the major world indices.

As it relates to Berkshire's common shares, I have been conspicuously negative toward the composition of Buffett's investment portfolio and what I described as his "style drift" regarding the foray into derivatives. My concerns peaked regarding the plight of Berkshire Hathaway's shares with a column I wrote as the U.S. stock market was bottoming in early March, "Buy American? I'm Damned!"

So, do you agree with Doug Kass? Considering the economy and the performance of Berkshire, I think Doug Kass' opinion is right.

Top talents are crucial in a slump economy

Given the new rounds of store closings, mergers, bankruptcies and layoffs happening nearly every day in the jewelry industry--and across the retail industry at large--there's a growing talent pool of good employees looking for new career opportunities.
But don't be fooled into thinking that just because the economy is slow, these employees will be available indefinitely. There's always a market for top talent, and strong performers never have to look very long to land a new position, even in a struggling economy.
Unfortunately, many jewelers have yet to learn this critical lesson. In recent months, we have found ourselves really leaning on clients to pull the trigger on hiring some of the wonderful talent we have identified for them. The old maxim "You snooze, you lose" really applies here, because even in this market, waiting too long to make a hiring decision on a great candidate could mean having a competitor grab the person right out from under your nose.
Indecision over hiring a good candidate can cost a company thousands of dollars in terms of time wasted and potential business lost.
Another troubling phenomenon that has resulted from the struggling economy is a growing number of hiring decisions being made by committee.
Many companies are so worried about making a hiring mistake, that groups of five to 10 staffers (or more) are assembled to interview and assess candidates in an attempt to somehow lessen the risk of a bad hire. The problem with this strategy is that these staff members often have different (and conflicting) hiring styles, needs, objectives and criteria for selecting candidates. Furthermore, even if they all manage to agree on a candidate, the candidate will not get hired if the highest-ranking staff member says no.
Our company had one such situation with a client company recently. We selected a candidate that was a fantastic talent and a perfect fit for the company, and others in the organization agreed. However, the president, who was having a tough day, interviewed the candidate for 10 minutes and decided to "pass" on her because he felt she did not have an "immediate chemistry" with him. Needless to say, the company did not hire her.
Because of his position, no one would challenge the president on his decision. But quite honestly, this kind of behavior does an outrageous disservice to your company, the candidate, your future business and the internal or external hiring people who have spent hours finding these candidates, prepping them and then doing background, credit and reference checks, and the like.
Our advice to jewelry personnel decision-makers is this: When you see a great candidate, make the decision and hire that person, even if it means taking a long, hard look at your staff and letting a lesser performer go.
Be sensitive to what you are putting the candidate through. This is not an exercise in interviewing skills. Candidates are there because an agency such as Diamond Staffing Solutions or your own management team thought they were qualified and went to great lengths to pre-qualify and prepare them. You cannot afford to delay bringing on a great candidate for fear that it would be a hiring mistake. You usually will know within 30 days anyway if the candidate is going to be a good hire or not.
If you have numerous staff members interviewing a candidate, have a hiring plan and questions that each person will ask of the candidate, even if some of the questions are the same. And remember that not everyone might "like" the candidate. After all, this is business, and "liking" the candidate is merely a bonus.
The real issue is whether or not the candidate can execute the responsibilities of the position, add value to your business and improve its bottom line. After the interview, it is important to gather everyone together to exchange thoughts. You might come away from the meeting feeling totally different about the candidate after hearing what colleagues have to say.
Although it has never been more important to hire the best talent available, make sure you do not "overthink" and second-guess your hiring decisions. Utilize the same skills you drew upon when the market was good. In other words, go with your gut instinct.
Also, keep in mind that not every candidate is a professional interviewer. Rather than interrogating prospective hires, be prepared to grant these candidates some grace and help them to relax and be themselves. Always bring candidates back for a follow-up interview, but not with 10 people. And limit your decision-makers; otherwise, the process becomes far too complicated.
Lastly, accept that you cannot run your business in fear of making a hiring mistake. We have all made them. Risk is a part of life, and every new hire is a risk, no matter how good he or she initially appears to be. You cannot afford to freeze up on hiring great talent simply because the market is down. It is far better to risk making a good hire than to let your competitor take the risk and end up with the best candidate.

Britain's "worst song" Agadoo re-released

LONDON – "Agadoo," a jaunty party hit voted the worst song of all time by a panel of experts six years ago, has been re-released to mark the 25th anniversary of its chart success in Britain.
The song was performed by pop due Black Lace and made it to No. 2 in the singles charts in 1984. It was kept from the top spot by George Michael's "Careless Whisper."
Black Lace represented the United Kingdom at the 1979 Eurovision Song Contest where it finished seventh, and two years later the quartet split leaving just Colin Routh and Alan Barton.
According to the band's online profile, Black Lace lost all their royalties from Agadoo, "a million selling single," when their distribution company went bust in 1984.
But their first album "Party Party" reached the top 10 in the album charts and sold around 650,000 copies in five weeks.
Barton, who had gone on to join the band Smokie, died after a bus crash in 1995.
Q magazine described Agadoo as "magnificently dreadful" in its poll of the worst pop songs in 2003.
"It sounded like the school disco you were forced to attend, your middle-aged relatives forming a conga at a wedding party, a traveling DJ act based in Wolverhampton, every party cliche you ever heard," the panel of experts said.
A spokesman for Black Lace said the re-released single went on sale on Monday.

From trash to vintage, time change things

When Tian Li, a fashion design teacher, first bought second-hand clothes from Japan 20 years ago, she did it for both aesthetic and financial reasons.
"First of all, they were really cheap - you could get a woolen skirt for a couple of dozen kuai," she recalls. "Another reason, perhaps the more important one, was that you couldn't find such 'trendy' designs in shops back then."
In 1980s China, the dominant fashion aesthetic - if there were any - was still heavily influenced by the era of "cultural revolution" (1966-76) that preceded it. The sudden availability of imported clothes offered a break from the despotic era of black and gray, she says, referring to the daring palette of orange, purple and green turquoise that was typical of clothes made in Japan.
In the late '80s and '90s, Tian tirelessly amassed more than 100 pieces of such clothing - including dresses, suits and overcoats - from local "night bazaars" in Shenyang, northeastern China's Liaoning province, where she taught at a fashion school for two decades.
" I still wear some of these things today," she says, sounding slightly nostalgic about the days she bent over piles of clothes heaped on the ground, sometimes for hours, searching for pieces that would suit her personal style.
Tian recalls that at its peak, an entire outdoor square in Shenyang was taken over by sellers of second-hand Japanese clothes, similar to what was happening in many other Chinese cities, including Dalian, Qingdao and even Beijing.
All that ended abruptly in the early '90s, however, when the government decided that the deluge of such clothes, rumored to have been dumped in China by people who would actually have paid to get rid of the "unwanted rubbish", posed a serious sanitary problem.
"There was a nationwide 'anti-dumping' if you like, and all those clothes disappeared almost overnight," says Tian. What she couldn't have imagined back then was that the demand for them would stage a sneaky revival, albeit in a different guise.
Japanese clothes with the same bright colors and exaggerated outlines of the '80s are no longer simply regarded as "second-hand". In certain, albeit small, parts of the fashion community, they are proudly known as "vintage".
Jiang Yi, an independent fashion designer based in Beijing, attributes the phenomenon to what he dubs "the discrepancy in fashion tenses". "In terms of fashion, what is pass in one time zone may be very happening in another," he says.
He considers the trend to have nothing to do with one country recycling the "sartorial waste" of another. "To think in that way would be to miss the whole point of it," he says. "In the 1980s, the majority of linen produced in China, where it was treated as inferior to other materials, such as silk and wool, was exported to Japan.
"These days, to wear pure linen and cotton represents the ultimate style and luxury. In fashion as in love affairs, people sometimes need others to remind them of what they've got."
Jiang does, however, lament China's lack of recent fashion heritage. "Because of this dramatic fault-line that exists in the country's contemporary fashion scene, it's unfair to compare vintage fashion here with that of America, Europe or even Japan," he says. "To look back for our own legacy would be to look past the three decades from the '50s and '80s, and directly into the pre-PRC era."
"But there's not a lot there that can be borrowed for today."
All that, according to Jiang, explains why young people rely overly on "borrowed fashion" when they seek to make a statement by reconnecting with the past. Most of them are blissfully unaware of China's previous and not-so-sweet encounter with these clothes.
And it is in their determination to strike out stylistically that the designer sees a distinct difference between people who shop for second-hand clothes today and those who did 20 years ago. "Between then and now, China has experienced a fashion awakening that has imbued an old trend with new meaning," he says. "Young people are looking for style, not necessarily bargains."

Tips on Keeping Your Money in Cash Accounts

Suddenly, cash is king again. With more and more Americans worried about their job security, the personal savings rate has climbed to 3.6%, up from next to nothing two years ago. Investors, meanwhile, have parked billions of dollars on the sidelines while they wait for better days. But with interest rates on savings near record lows, it pays to be savvy about where you stockpile your rainy-day funds. Here's what you should keep in mind.
1. Don't keep all your cash in the same place. There are four ways to use cash, and an ideal account for each. Grocery money goes in checking. Your emergency fund - cash you'll need if you lose a job - must be in a bank account that's 100% safe but needn't be so convenient; if you get a good yield, don't worry if it takes a day or two to transfer the money. Money for a specific purpose, like a wedding, can get a higher yield if locked in a certificate of deposit set to mature when you need it. Your investment portfolio's cash might belong in a money-market fund, but not always (see No. 3).
2. It's safe to shop around. Uncle Sam has your back. For your emergency and special-purpose money, there's no need to settle for low rates at your local bank. You can trust your money to any account insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which guarantees up to $250,000 in deposits per depositor per bank (individual, joint, IRA, and trust accounts are insured separately). You can go to Bankrate.com to check the financial health of any bank. Plenty of top-rated online banks now offer 2% yields.
3. Money-market mutual funds aren't a no-brainer anymore. These funds are not FDIC-insured. (Banks' money-market deposit accounts typically are - just be sure the bank says so.) Money-market funds almost never lose a penny, but the crisis has changed the rules: After one fund lost principal last fall, the feds had to step in with a temporary rescue plan. Meanwhile, yields on many funds are now under 2%. If you'll keep part of your portfolio in cash for a while, an insured bank account may be the better deal. But money funds can still be useful. They may be the safest option in a 401(k) plan, and can be convenient when linked to a brokerage account. (Some brokers now offer FDIC-insured accounts too.) Just stick with the big, solid firms. And if a fund promises an unusually high yield, it's probably courting too much risk to be considered cash, says Peter Crane of Crane Data, which tracks the industry.
4. A 2% yield is better than it looks. Low interest rates are bad news if you live off your investment income. But if you are just worried about your savings keeping ahead of rising prices, a 2% yield isn't bad at all with inflation running close to zero, notes Greg McBride of Bankrate.com.
5. You might be better off with "almost cash." There's a whole spectrum of risk between money markets and the typical bond fund. So if the market has you spooked and you want to trim your portfolio's risk, consider some higher-yielding options, advises Evelyn MacIntyre, a Bloomfield Hills, Mich., financial planner. High-quality short-term bond funds may lose money - they fell 4% in 2008 - but they yield over 4%. Stable-value funds also hold bonds but add some insurance on top. They are available only within 401(k) plans and some other tax-advantaged accounts.

Toy, luxury stores set conservative attitude toward Christmas 2009

Toy, luxury retailers, which order earliest for Christmas, are proceeding with caution
NEW YORK -- Shoppers may be thinking about spring, but some retailers are reluctantly setting their sights on Christmas.
Still suffering whiplash from the worst holiday selling season in at least four decades, major toy sellers and upscale merchants -- who must order Christmas stock earlier than most retailers -- are exercising extreme caution as they plan for the rest of the year.
They're ordering at lower prices, they're keeping orders small and they're planning to buy more only if consumer demand picks up, said David Wolfe, creative director of The Doneger Group, which consults with stores on apparel buying.
For shoppers, this hesitance will translate into fewer choices and, if demand increases at all, fewer bargains. For factories abroad, it's feeding desperation at the time of year when manufacturers usually start ramping up to fill summer and Christmas orders.
But retailers are more worried they'll be stuck with unsold merchandise they'll have to discount than that their shelves will go bare.
"We would rather chase than not and, if we cannot get it, we would rather not get it than have too much inventory," J. Crew Group Chairman and CEO Millard Drexler told investors during a recent conference call. "Because none of us really have figured out where this thing is going, where is the bottom, where is it settling in at."
Saks Inc. Chairman and CEO Steve Sadove recently reminded investors that full-price selling is "largely a result of supply and demand."
Shoppers are more likely to buy on sight if stores have something they want and know will be in limited distribution, lest the item sell out while they wait for the price to fall, explained retail consultant Walter Loeb. So Saks is cutting inventory 20 percent this year. And both Saks and rival Neiman Marcus have pressed top designer suppliers to lower their prices.
Clothing and other specialty retailers must get their Christmas orders right because they do as much as 40 percent of their business at the end of each year, said Ken Perkins, president of research company RetailMetrics LLC. For the toy industry, at least half of all revenue and profit come during the winter holiday shopping season.
So expect fewer $200 robotic pets on toy store shelves in the fall. And at luxury stores look for a higher proportion of classics and specialty items like fur-trimmed gloves and jackets -- nothing too trendy that could soon look passe. Jewelry stores also plan to highlight classic styles and keepsakes.
Factories abroad "are on edge," said Josh Green, chief executive of Panjiva, which tracks U.S. Customs data on shipments by global suppliers to the United States. One in four major Chinese manufacturers shipped less than half as much to U.S. customers in November through January than they did a year earlier, he said.
Shrunken, delayed and staggered orders are also making planning hard for folks like Harold Chizick, vice president of marketing for toy maker Mega Brands. He said buyers are not making their typical full-year commitments to order products other than its much anticipated Battle Strikers -- electronically charged tops that retail for $15.
The silver lining may be greater flexibility for retailers like Denis Hofstetter, owner of The Toy Store in Atlanta. Small stores like his usually put their orders in later than their bigger competitors since they order smaller quantities.
Ordering summer toys now, he said, he can buy 150 kites instead of the 300 his supplier might have required in years past. He expects to order more as summer approaches, but he also plans to follow this cautious strategy again when he starts placing Christmas orders in June.
"Business is so erratic," said Hofstetter. "Customers are being very careful. They're holding on to their money."

Play it safe when you dress for recession success

LONDON - It's tricky to know what to wear in a recession if you are job-hunting, but the advice from professionals is to play it safe and formal.
In boom times, wearing casual or quirky clothes to an interview could suggest a free-thinking, risk-taker.
But when risk-taking has got a bad name and jobs are scarce it's better to turn up in a plain, dark suit and white shirt if you are a man and a sober skirt, jacket and blouse if you are a woman, say image consultants.
"What people don't want now is 'different', they want what they know," said Sandy Ruddock, founder of image consultants Public i.
Debenhams, the British department store chain, has already seen a 50 percent rise in sales of white shirts.
"These days people don't want to look too flamboyant," said Bryan Morel, spokesman for Debenhams. "The white classic shirt has flown off the shelves. Serious times call for serious clothing."
The people doing the hiring these days are more likely to be older, more conservative executives who have avoided redundancy themselves because they are more expensive to lay-off.
They are more likely to want to employ what they see as solid, reliable-looking types for the struggle ahead.
"There is absolutely a move back to more formal dress for interviews. I would err completely on the side of looking conservative and traditional," said Ruddock.
In the current environment people also need to be seen to be trying harder.
"There is a link between formality and control," said Lucinda Slater, founder of consultancy Best Foot Forward.
"It's about not wanting to leave anything to chance," she said. "Dressing more formally is a way of looking like you really care about your job."
Slater's firm has seen increased demand for advice and guidance on how to get staff to look their best.
"Enquiries from professionals for advice for themselves have included phrases like: 'I know I need to sharpen up/upgrade, look like I belong," she said.
She attended a conference recently where male Human Resources managers were all in suits and ties when last year they were dressed more casually.
"HR people being in the front line of the jobs market know when it's time to smarten up."
A backlash against bankers for wrecking the global financial system and precipitating a deep recession has also had a noticeable impact on dress codes in the financial district of the British capital known as the City of London.
Flamboyant dress in the financial or business world risks being seen in poor taste.
"People want to blend in a bit more now," said Gabriel John, retail manager at the City branch of high-class British shirtmakers Turnbull & Asser.
The shirtmaker, founded in 1883, counts the Prince of Wales as well as Hollywood stars such as Sean Penn and Michael Caine among its clientele.
John said they were selling more classic white or simple striped shirts at the moment, instead of shirts and ties in bold colors, often popular with City bankers and traders.
"There is much more conformity," said John. "The 'Dandys' in the City are in hiding at the moment."
In terms of role models for hard times, the new occupants of the White House Barack and Michelle Obama are seen as having a an impact in terms of current dress codes.
"He and his wife dress very traditionally," said Ruddock. "They are bringing back an element of that old-fashioned Sunday best." She said this was in tune with the current climate.
"You are going back to old values. Old values were: if you didn't have money you didn't spend it."
Checklist - What to wear to an interview
Men
Charcoal grey or navy suit.
Formal style, but not old-fashioned - three buttons with a high-break (where the lapels cross-over)
Pale shirt, white, off-white or very pale blue or pale pink.
A silk tie with polka dots or small geometric pattern.
Black socks
Black lace-up shoes
Women
A matching skirt suit or dress and jacket, not trousers - they are regarded as less formal.
Shirt with button-down collar - a collar carries more authority than no collar.
Plain navy or black court shoes with heels.
Skin color tights
A woman also needs to be careful about now showing too much flesh - thigh, upper arm and cleavage.
Make-up (as important for a women as shaving is for a man), but avoid bright pink glossy nails and garish lipstick.